Alex Anthopoulos just used a term the majority of ink stained wretches wouldn’t even understand

From Jordan Bastian on the Jays page:

“We would’ve liked to have had the player back, but there’s no question it had to be at the right price for us knowing the opportunity cost.”

Opportunity Cost. A word I learned in ECO20 at Western (usually while trying to recover from last night’s hangover at the Ridout, but that’s another story…damn 10am classes).

I have never heard any other sports General Manager use the term. I’m sure a few of them are familiar with it, but to finally hear it actually used by the person in charge of running my baseball team. I can’t tell you how happy this makes me.

We’ve got the right guy running the show now. Yes Beeston (he of the Dick Cheney like search committee) made him bring back Cito, but otherwise, everything Anthopoulos has done, and more specifically, the way he has done them and the rationales he has used, I love it all.

This team may not make the playoffs next year. But by God, with this guy in charge, it’s not going to be for lack of INTELLIGENT EFFORT or for a true understanding of value.

Go Double A.

So trading him in the off season will land the Jays more eh?

Both “Dick” Griffin and “Bobcat” McCown have been beating the same idiotic drum for months. That trading Roy Halladay at the deadline last season would not have fetched as much as trading him during the off season.

Oh really?

I wonder then how they will react to this: Halladay wants deal done by spring

One of Halladay’s agent’s partners, Jeff Barry, has told the Jays that if Roy is not moved by the start of spring training, he will not discuss ANY move for the rest of his last season in Toronto. And since he has a full no trade clause, his word is the law.

Let’s leave aside for the minute that this asshole Barry is a complete scum bag for spouting off about Hallady’s situation to begin with…although that is admittedly hard to do, given the harm it does to the Jays.

Let’s instead think about the implications of this for the Jays. The rest of baseball now know that the Jays, if they want to trade him, must do so this off season and cannot hold out the hope of waiting till next year’s trade deadline. Do you think that gives the Jays more leverage or less?

And all this on the very morning when “I don’t care about value” Mr. Griffin pens yet again another hapless article stating, “The Jays were better off trading in July. Not true.” This is the same dinosaur who is obliviously contemptuous of the entire concept of Moneyball, of course getting it entirely wrong in the process, thinking it’s about rating OBP over stolen bases when all it’s about is finding undervalued assets, be they high on base percentage players, defensive gems, or as Billy Beane has recently pointed out, scouts! – and what is Anthopoulous doing right now? That’s right, he’s hiring a boat load of scouts (and using Tom Tango as a consultant…this guy gets it). Spending money wisely, what a concept. Alex rocks.

And let’s not forget McCown. Just last week, he, along with Shannon (who has been a massive disappointment as a guest host – his television insights being obviated by his inane attempts at commentary on other topics he has zero knowledge of…god help me, I almost miss Kelly…almost) was also reiterating his own clueless opinion that trading Halladay now would definitely land the Jays more in return. Specifically he said, “we talked a lot about this…before the trade deadline that the one interesting phenomena of the off season is that GM’s forget how bad they actually are…a couple of things here and there and all of sudden the market expands.”

McCown’s contention is that there are a greater number of potential suitors for Halladay now than at the deadline, because some of these new teams are able to delude themselves into thinking they are actual contenders and as such, will be looking to aquire a final piece of the puzzle like Roy.

Well here’s the thing, that premise (more teams interested) may well be true, but it does not follow that the Jays return increases. While there may be a higher quantity of teams now, at the deadline the fewer number of teams were far more motivated. I’d much rather have three highly motivated teams like we did at the deadline (Phillies, RedSox, Dodgers) than 8 only somewhat motivated teams now. And that is the position the Jays find themselves in. Plus of course to say nothing of the fact that by trading for him at the deadline you simply get more out of Halladay, an extra half season and a full extra playoffs. That simple fact alone all but guarentees that the offers the Jays receive now will be less. Because the team’s are receiving less.

I’ll try to put this into term’s that even Griffin could understand (although given the medifore I’m about to introduce, that’s doubtful):

Imagine you’re out at the bar and looking to pick up. When are your chances better? At 9pm with one of 10 completely sober young ladies or gentlemen, or at 2am with one of three bombed and horny guys or girls?

We had our chance for immediate gratification in late July. Now we’ll have to be contend with 1st base, and George Bell is at the platte ready to ground into a double play.

Christ.

Kevin Lowe, meet Mark Shapiro

Fangraphs “Sorry Cleveland – you got hosed here. This is just not a good deal for the Indians in any way, shape, or form. Ruben Amaro just cleaned Mark Shapiro’s clock on this trade.”

Baseball Prospectus Radio “If you’re a Phillies fan you’ve got to be jumping up for joy.”

Beyond the Box Score “It’s hard not to like this deal from a Philly fan’s perspective, because they didn’t have to part with Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor, their best prospects.”

Philadephia Daily News “I don’t know if there is an all-points bulletin out for Ruben Amaro in Ohio, but there should be. Grand Theft. Really grand.”

Cleveland Plain Dealer “Only In Cleveland does the major-league baseball team trade the reigning Cy Young Award winners in back-to-back seasons……and not get a player in return who makes an immediate impact at the highest level.”

10 yr old Tribe fan Seth Parker ““I didn’t think it was the smartest trade,” said Seth Parker, 10.”

It’s not so much that EVERYONE (numbers guys, ink stained wretches, fans) agrees the Indians got hosed on this Lee deal that pisses me off. It’s that the defense of the deal coming out of Tribe HQ is that, “oh don’t worry, we evaluate prospects better than you, we have these guys ranked far higher than others, these guys are the ones we really wanted.”

This is like an NFL team with the third pick in the draft, taking the consensus 9th ranked player, with that third pick. You just can’t do that. You cannot give away that much value. Or, to put a local spin on it, recall a certain useless Kazakhstani forward drafted by the Leafs at #10 in the 1998 entry draft when he was projected as an early second rounder. It’s not that directly after him, Colorado took Alex Tanguay at #12, or that the Flyers took Simon Gagne at #22. No, I can live with a team, who if they take the right player at the right spot, just gets unlucky with the player’s development. It’s that NO ONE had this player ranked this high and that if they really were in love with him and really wanted him, all they had to do was trade down, pick up extra picks, and still be able to take him at his correct spot. The expected value they gave away in taking him 10th is foregone and can not be returned.

The value the Indians gave away in only accepting Carrasco, Knapp, Marson, and Donald for Lee can never be recouped.

It’s not about getting the guy you want, it’s about asset maximization. This also reminds me of the Pronger trade to Anaheim. Without exception, the other interested GM’s said they would have ponied up more than what Anaheim received. Lowe did not maximize his asset. It’s the same situation in Cleveland.

These goose stepping morons did not leverage their best asset to it’s full value. And in doing so, they fucked the Jays by undercutting the market for Halladay.

Cliff Lee is fucking the Jays gently with a chainsaw

From Stark and Rosenthal and Morosi and all of Blair’s tweets:

The Phillies are rumoured to be making a deal for Cliff Lee instead of Halladay and for a much lower price. No Drabek or Happ. Deal rumored to include Knapp (the 18 yr old I fucking covet…crap crap crap) and Carrasco (they can have him!).

Fuckery. If this comes off, Phillies are geniuses, Tribe are idiots, and Jay are left at the alter.

C’mon Cleveland, you miserable cocksuckers. Don’t fucking undercut the market for Doc. You can get a King’s ransom for Lee. AND he’s signed next year for only 9M! Jesus fucking Christ, that is such a massive discount.

Twelve noon and I already need a stiff drink. It’s going to be a long two days till 4pm Friday.

Not ready for Prime Time, Sports or otherwise

Rob Faulds and Jim Kelly are co-hosting Prime Time Sports this week and, as much as McCown these days appears on many nights to just phone it in (and then brag about that fact to his listeners…nice), at least when listening to him I don’t get the idea that he has a low IQ.  He may be lazy in his old age, but he’s not stupid.

Faulds and Kelly on the other hand?  The questions they ask are either inane or obvious.

First the inane.  During their interview with Keith Law and Jamie Campbell tonight they sounded more worried/interested in how Cito or the players would feel than about the actual components of a trade.

Faulds:  “When you’re making a deal for a player of this caliber, do you have to be extra careful in what you’re trying to get back in return because of the hole he is going to leave in your rotation and in the ball club?

The hole he’s going to leave?  What, you think his teammates are all going to have a group cry?  Christ.  The team is 12.5 games out.  Who cares about the rest of this season.  This season is over.  The focus should be on the future!

Which is what Law says in his response:

“You’ve just gotta get value for value…it’s almost an economic decision or a statistical decision, more than the intangible stuff what he means to the ball club.  I’m just much more concerned if I’m JP with getting maximum value in return and making sure that I don’t sell this asset for less than what he’s actually worth”

Thank you Mr. Law.

Kelly of course, tries to bring the discussion right back to an emotional/feelings context:

“And Jamie, if Cito does have to make out a lineup without that name in it, that’s no small task…”

Yes Jim, poor old Cito, he’ll never be able to write out nine names on a piece of paper again, he’ll be so traumatized.

Now the obvious, or maybe just plain dumb.  Faulds again:

“It’s difficult when you’re going  to deal a guy like Roy Halladay who’s got a very nice contract, a big contract [WHICH IS IT ROB?]…are there actual, would you say a half dozen suitors for Roy Halladay or is it less than than that because of the amount of money that he’s going to be making this year and next year and perhaps in terms of young players who you don’t have to pay that much money to?”

Law:  “I don’t think his salary is any impediment to any of the suitors for this year and frankly what he makes next year is really not all that much.  It’s probably 60% or even half of what he’d make on the open market.”

What sports fan doesn’t know that one of the biggest attractions of trading for Halladay is his contract?  It’s so obvious.  Yet here we have two supposed sports journalists who either A – are too stupid to realize this or B –  think the fans are too stupid to realize this and thus that they must talk down to them over the air.  Either way, it makes for terrible radio.

All this on a day when the news broke about the Red Sox offer.  Did they ask even a single question about the proposed Boston deal?  Or even about the possible Phillies deals?  Sure would have been nice to hear Law’s opinion on whether or not Buchhotz projects out higher than Drabek.   But nope, not a word.  Unbelievable.

And the worst thing about these two guys?  They’re not even remotely witty or humorous.  I can live with a less than 100% focus on the numbers if you’re entertaining at least some of the time (see Watters, Bill).  But Faulds is just so stiff and Kelly just pretends to have such fake outrage, over the most irrelevant things.

Just as a comparison, imagine for a moment that instead of these two on McCown’s off weeks, we got Elliotte Friedman and John Shannon.  How bloody great would that be?  Friege is always on top of his stuff, totally up to date, and knows how to ask the questions the fans want to hear asked.  Shannon’s experience in TV and behind the scenes in general in broadcasting is incredibly interesting.

Instead we are subjected to Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

Jays/Phillies Halladay deals – who wins?

Since the buffoons that get tv time on TSN couldn’t be bothered with actual insight yesterday, it’s left to the online world to do the real number crunching so a proper discussion can take place as to whether or not the Phillies deals are enough for the Doc.

The Facts:

Jays asked for Happ, Drabek, and Brown.  Phillies countered with Happ, Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald.

To determine if either deal is enough, we have to determine the value of Halladay’s upcoming season and a half (his contract is up after 2010) to the Phillies vs the value of the prospects coming in return to the Jays.

Roy first.  To determine his value we have to determine how much he costs vs what his expected return will be.

Jays have 40% of their schedule left for 2009.  Roy makes 14.25 million this season.  That means he is still owed 5.7 million for the rest of 2009.  In 2010 his salary is 15.8 million, for a total salary commitment of 21.5 million.  This is per Cot’s Baseball Contracts excellent salary site.

Now we need to determine his expected return.  Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the right stat for the job.  It measures how many wins a player contributes each season above the level of an easily available replacement player. Fangraphs Roy Halladay page has the info we need. It show’s that the Doc has accounted for 5.0 WAR already this year. So for the remaining 40% of the season a team should expect him to produce 3.3 WAR. Since it looks like he’s going to make his Seattle start in a Jays uniform this week and since he’ll probably be ever so slightly less productive for the rest of the year (he’s having a massively good year), we’ll call it 3.0 Wins Above Replacement that the team acquiring Doc can expect to get out of him till the end of this season. Next year we’ll assume he has a slightly less stellar year, inline with his career stats, and give him 6.5 WAR for 2010. For a grand total of 9.5 Wins that Doc’s new team can expect him to contribute to their cause.

How much are those wins worth? Based on the 2009 price for Free Agent’s, we know that each point of WAR is worth approximately 4.5 million. But that number comes from averaging long term deals, where there is a much higher risk premium (chance the player could get injured/performance tails off) for the team. Since Halladay’s deal only has 1.5 years left, the risk premium is much much reduced. A good estimate for this shorter term is 5.5 million/point of WAR. So he’s worth 5.5 million/Win times 9.5 Wins. Which gives us a value of 52.9 million.

We also have to factor in that if he walks from the Philliles to free agency at the end of 2010, they would receive two TYPE A draft pics in compensation (assuming they offered him arbitration, and they would). The value of those picks is approximately 8 million, per Hardball times draft research.

Lastly we need to in some fashion account for the extra revenue that Halladay’s new team stands to reap from making the playoffs due to his adding 3 Wins to their record. Right now the Phillies chances of making the playoffs are estimated to be 77% by Baseball Prospectus and 88% by Beyond the Box Score. Let’s split the difference and call their chances of playing in October 83%. So how much more likely will the Phillies be to make the playoffs if they pick up Roy? Again, per Beyond the Box Score, the three wins Roy is likely to add to the Phillies increase their post season chances by 10%. So that would give them an all but uncatchable (sorry Mets) 93% likelyhood of playing in October.

So how much is post season play worth? Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver did some excellent work on this very question in the BP book Baseball Between the Numbers. Taking into account direct gate increases in the post season and all the ancillary revenue going forward, Nate estimated 25 million in extra value for a given team by making the playoffs.

So with no Halladay the Phillies have an 83% shot at 25 million, which equals 20.75 million.
With Halladay they increase that to a 93% shot at 25 million, which equals 23.25 million. The difference is how much Halladay contributes to their chances of lapping up all that post season cash. 2.5 million.

So, adding up all the individual components of Halladay’s worth we have:

Regular season performance (9.5 WAR) – 52.9 million
Type A free agent loss compensation – 8 million
Increased post season shot (specific to the Phillies) – 2.5 million

TOTAL – 63.4 million in expected return he brings to Philadelphia.

As we mentioned above, his salary is 21.5 million.  Thus by subtraction, Roy Halladay’s value to the Phillies is a rather massive 41.9 million dollars.

God damn he’s so fucking good…must focus, must focus.  No emotion allowed here.  Save it for the 24 hour binge when an announcement is made.

Okay back to it.  Now all we have to determine is if the possible players coming back to the Jays in the proposed deals are worth more or less than 41.9 million.

Not as difficult as it sounds (thank God).  Victor Wang of Hardball Times did some ground breaking research on how to value prospects.   It is reproduced in nice, easy to read chart form at BtBS by Eric Manning. Basically by looking at past drafts we are able to evaluate just how much value a Top 10, Top 25, Top 50, Top 100 pitching or hitting prospect brings to a team for the 6 years they are under direct control of their original club.

So let’s have a look at those deals!

DEAL #1 – The deal the Jays offered but the Phillies rejected:

J.A. Happ, lhp – 16.2 million – pitching well at the MLB level right now for the Phillies but preseason was only projected as a B- prospect. The former means he’s worth upwards of 25 million. The latter only 7.3 million. We’ll split the difference.

Kyle Drabek, rhp – 15.5 million – Phillies top pitching prospect in the minors

Dominic Brown, of – 23.4 million – Top 50 hitting prospect for Phillies, just ranked 17th in BBA midseason poll.

TOTAL – 55.1 million

DEAL #2 – The deal the Phillies offered but the Jays rejected:

J.A. Happ, lhp – 16.2 million

Michael Taylor, of – 23.4 million – similar Top 50 hitter to Brown, closer to being MLB ready, but 2 years older.

Carlos Carrasco, rhp – 9.8 million – was Top 50 but having a rough 2009. We’ll call him Top 100 now.

Jason Donald, ss – 14.2 million – Top 75 hitting prospect, ranked 69th in BBA’s preseason poll.

TOTAL – 63.6 million

Deal #1 would net the Jays 13.2 million in value.

Deal #2 (oddly enough, the one the Phillies are pushing…this just show’s how big a difference an extra prospect makes since the likelihood of any ONE prospect working out is so risky) nets the Jays 21.7 million in value.

As a quick aside, given that the Jays want Deal #1 and the Phillies are pushing for Deal #2, the most likely outcome may be some slightly different combo where the Phillies get to keep Drabek (the player they really seem to not want to deal) and the Jays get Happ, Brown, Donald, and perhaps the Phillies single A 18 year old fireballer Jason Knapp.  This deal, if it were done, would net the Jays 24.0 million, again perversely more than Deal #2, even though the Phillies would probably prefer this one.

What does this all tell us?

That regardless of which deal the Jays eventually accept, they will be anally raping the Phillies with Gary Roberts like intensity. The only difference being that in Deal #1 the Phillies get to use lube.

The Reporters talk Halladay

Up late this morning, head felt like it was going to explode, had hoped for some intelligent insight on Doc. What do we get instead?

Dave Hodge: “…do we look back on this as a permanent mark on the franchise?”
Steve Simmons: “I think it’s an absolute permanent mark, not just for today but for next year and for the future. If they don’t trade Halladay it has implications, if they do trade Halladay it has implications”

Well NO SHIT Steve. So basically there is nothing the Jays can do at this point that will make Simmons happy (shades of little Howie Berger and the Leafs).  Which has the lovely effect of course of allowing him to castigate the Jays and JP regardless of what decision they make.   Heads I win, Tails you lose.  This is just the sort of illegitimate argument that drives me fucking nuts.  If you want to criticize Ricciardi for trading Doc, fine.  If you want to criticize him for not trading Doc, fine.  BUT YOU CAN’T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS.

And Dave Hodge is complicit in setting up this BS with his opening comment. He should know better. He has known better. He used to have integrity. He of the, “”That’s the way things go these days in sports and at this network” comment to the nation as the CBC cut away from an OT, flipping a pencil and getting himself fired. Where the hell is that Dave Hodge? Even when he has first hosting That’s Hockey, he was still on the ball, up to speed, and came up with great stuff.  The new Dave Hodge seems to grow smaller and bring less relevant comments to the table by the week. Too bad. I liked the old Dave Hodge.

Dave Naylor: “this idea that you have to trade a player because he’s going to be a free agent a year and a half…I’ve been following sports for a long time [YES DAVE, WE ALL REALIZE YOU’VE SEEN IT ALL AND HAVE IMMENSE WISDOM, MAKE YOUR FUCKING POINT]…usually teams say well we don’t want to lose this guy at the end of the year, unless it’s clear you have no shot the next season, you maybe trade him a year and a half…that’s a bad deal with the fans…you’re selling out a year and a half in advance.”

Jesus fucking Christ. There is not a single GM in baseball who won’t give the Jays more for Halladay now than during the off season or at next year’s deadline. And Halladay HAS made it clear he is testing the Free Agent market, ie leaving. So how can Naylor sit there and say that trading him now is the wrong decision. The Pomposity that Walks like a Man, Dick Griffin, has espoused this viewpoint as well (trade him in the off season, not now, and you’ll get more). From little Dickie I am not surprised. Basic logic has never been his strong suit. But from Naylor, who usually is a decent columnist, and who does give a shout out to Canada’s and UWO’s own Vaughn Martin who just signed with the Chargers for 500k signing bonus, sweet…well Mr. Naylor, you are better than this. Yes fans will be upset to see Roy go (I will personally cry like a baby for a week) but the entire point of being a GM is to not allow the emotion of the fans to rule your actions. To think long term. If the Jays don’t trade Halladay, they get nothing for him. If they do trade him, they get building blocks for the future. How the fuck can Naylor possibly not see this? He sounds like a petulant little 5 year old.

To their credit both Damien and Simmons made this exact point, that the Jays are trading him because they want to try and max his value.

Damien Cox: “If there’s a deal at the end of it, the final analysis is what kind of deal he makes.” AMEN.

What drives me nuts with all the commentary about the Jays right now is how, while every single columnist/commentator wants to throw Ricciardi under the bus for his management of the team, barely any of them ever take Paul Beeston to task.   Here again I must mention that Cox tried to do exactly this today but his comment was quickly forgotten by Naylor and the rest.  Which brings to mind that great Winston Churchill quote:

“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.”

Beeston and his Dick Cheney like search committee management is the guy that was suppose to find a President for the Jays. He is the guy that was supposed to have him in place to start this season. And for that matter he is the guy that back in the day gave Clemens the out in his contract allowing him to bolt from us. Why are all these failures never mentioned. I’ll tell you why. Because he’s everybody’s best buddy. Because in general, sports reporters are NOT objective and do not want to criticize people they personally like or regard as their friend. McCown is one of the worst for this. And the entire Dale Tallon commentary just proves my point. All the old boys in the media stood up for their guy and claimed he was fired unfairly. Unfairly?! For fuck sakes, with the ridiculous long term deals he gave out and the way he has hamstrung the Hawks cap position going forward, he ought to have been fired long before this.

But I digress.

Christ now I’m getting all worked up. But well, fuck, fans should be worked up. It’s this kind of non-objective, non-fact based commentary that we are so ill served by.

Why on Earth couldn’t Hodge and the boys have simply broken down each of the theoretical deals for Doc? Why couldn’t they have gone through the potential players/prospects we might be getting in return and explained which deal would make the Jays best in the long run? Could it be because they are too lazy to actually have done the work to become familiar enough with the exact composition of the proposed deals? Could it be because it’s so much easier to simply rant and shout, “fire JP!” than to actually use quantitative measures to really analyze for the fans what the Jays best road is going forward?

Nah couldn’t be all that. That would imply they were not putting forth real effort. That would imply they were simply punching the clock and picking up their cheque. And sports reporters would never do that…would they.

Take me now Lord, just take me now

So let me get this straight. The Jays blow an EIGHT run lead, lose in 12, AND today may very well be the day we trade the best pitcher in baseball, the greatest home grown talent in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays organization, and a possible Hall of Famer, who if so, would be the first player to EVER enter wearing the powder blues.

Thank Christ for Vodka.

And thank Christ for the autosave functionality of WordPress. Naturally my piece of shit prehistoric Dell decided to seize up on me just as I was about to post this. Fuck, I gotta get a new Mac.

One step closer to Bryce Harper

Massive loss for the Nationals tonight.  The Padres are one of really just two other teams (KC)  in MLB with a run differential poor enough to possibly end up getting the number 1 pick in the draft in 2010.  But after tonight’s loss, the Nats are now a full 10 wins (in this race it’s the win column, not the loss column, that counts) behind San Diego.

The Doc making noises about coming back, Nats lose to main competition…hell can the night get any better?

Time to fire up Poker Stars and find some drunk idiots looking to donate to my “Phil needs a new iPod Touch” cause.

We’re damn well keeping him, or at least exacting a king’s ransom otherwise

Per Blair tonight,  Roy in his post game news conference:

“right now, I think I will be here…I feel like there’s a plan in place”

Hell yes.

And then this on Richard (that’s DICK to you) Griffin’s idiotic assertion that JP was ripping Roy:

“In some quarters, it’s been suggested that this week’s whole semantics lesson…is an organizational plan to sully Halladay’s reputation and make his exit more palatable.  That’s an odd assertion from the grassy knoll group, since no sports figure in this city has less currency among his teams fan-base. I mean, really: if you want to spread nasty rumours about the most popular kid in the class, you don’t send out the least-popular kid to do it, right?”

Hell double yes.

Blair’s logic is, well, logical.  Griffin’s is simply more of the same irrational and vindictive personal attacks on the GM.  I wonder if JP cockblocked Dick one night down on Queen West out at Ultra?  Or maybe JP scooped up the babe Dick had been hard at work on all evening one night at the Black Bull.   God knows I’ve got no love for Ricciardi, but I hope he did.